The crop set for the 2012 season is fairly consistent and pronounced with a projected increase of 20 percent for this area. With a larger crop from California and light harvesting under way, it's time to focus in on the new season, as last year was surreal for most. With the peak of the imported volume and the heart of the winter upon us, California avocados are on the sidelines and ready to roll.

Look for the harvest volume to start off slow, but gather momentum as we move into spring, as this time period is the true kick-off for the southern area. Looking at previous seasons, our average percent of the harvest is below ten percent for this period. This trend will continue unless we see a demand exceeds supply scenario with the general market. Fruit sizing is slightly better than last year, but early size picking will lack the efficiency on volume.

So far, the winter is tracking a La Niña pattern. Santa Ana winds and cold temperatures have kept the growers and farm managers on their feet throughout this winter season. Compounded with low precipitation for this period, La Niña is showing its true characteristics. Crop damage is minimal from these adverse conditions, as fruit quality is similar to last year with pockets of Thrips and wind scarring the most common quality issues. Fortunately, some early precipitation has helped keep the soils wet and costs down.

With this year's larger crop, it will allow the industry to provide a steady fruit supply and will lead to many opportunities of strong promotions and programs. Look for Mission's quality programs to lead the way and move high volume of fruit as we head into the heavy harvest periods. This will also stabilize the market as the weekly shipments are projected to exceed 25 million pounds per week. Buckle in, as it may be winter but the Avocado highway is warming up to another strong season.

Fully into winter, with threatening winds, frost and light rain behind us, we still have an above average crop in San Diego County. This oncoming crop started with the warm and wet spring of 2010, and has seen mostly mild weather to this point. The trees and fruit have continued to grow through the winter. Current sizing is poised for a nice round of early size picking. There is some very light scarring out there due to an extended bloom period that promoted Thrips populations. But the overall quality is still very good.

Harvesting will be light through mid-February and will go into full swing by mid-March. Chilean volumes are on the wane heading into Super Bowl and Mexico will fill in most of the gap in a controlled manner as California starts the new season. Look for Mexico to push their harvest through spring to make way for California and Peru this summer.

Organic fruit sales continue to increase with Mission along with our conventional fruit sales. Organic growers have been very aggressive in their farming practices in recent years and we are seeing increased production and quality coming out of the southern groves.

With an on-crop this season, growers should pay particular attention to tree health. That means increased cultural care and increased fertilization going into spring. In addition, let's hope our rainfall develops coming out of winter and into spring.

Happy New Year to everyone and it looks like 2012 is starting out as a problem to grower's sides and bank books. A little over a year ago we were blessed with one of the warmest and wettest Decembers ever in Ventura County's history. Sadly this time around we have experienced the complete opposite with record setting cold temperatures along with prolonged east winds. For the first time in years a windfall event was declared by the state but the official fruit sizing release dates forced growers to leave most of it on the floor. Estimates on total fruit loss topped out over 5 million pounds. It was also very disheartening to witness how many non Mission growers were picking off of the ground, selling and shipping immature windfall fruit to the local cash-and-carry taco stands, swap meets and farmers markets knowing that they were passing onto the consumer an inferior product. Thankfully no one got sick while eating their bargain basement guacamole and the day is not far away when anything picked up off the ground will automatically be thrown into the cull bin. Last year people got sick on cantaloupes and this year we have had an orange juice recall.

January has been warm, windy and dry. The older trees (20 plus years) are sedentary on how to proceed forward in this definite La Nina weather pattern. I am seeing a lot of off bloom but we all know that a prolonged period of rain or sub 40 night time temperatures will drop the BB-sized set. It is very easy driving by groves on the Oxnard plains and coastal growing regions to view the unusually strong and very early bloom of all of the B flower pollinators. With so much wind these past 60 days, the on-the-tree fruit set for this coming season has become very visible especially if you are on horseback. As noted in my last website update this year's set is average at best in the coastal areas but strongly improves moving to the eastern portions of the county. This is very consistent amongst all of the ranches in the county with the extremely cold and windy fruit setting months of May and June being negatively affected.

As in years past I am seeing fruit sizing all over the board. Newer plantings along with younger trees (10 years in age) are showing a lot of early 8 ounce fruit. Trees from 10 to 20 years of age with a light set have good sizing and will be stripped out earlier rather than later. But the real challenge will be older trees with a moderate to heavy fruit set showing smaller sizes. The lack of early season rain along with extremely cold soil temperatures will confront growers with a huge challenge. Do I pick what little size I have, strip out the older trees by April 1st or hold till the middle of summer and catch a double sizing bump? Trees are already looking stressed. This is only January and hopefully moving forward it will get wetter rather than dryer.

Finally, congratulations to one of Mission's very own and our Northern County's Field Manager, Gabe Felipe for being elected by a landslide vote as a board member to the California Avocado Commission. Gabe will be the grower representative for District #5 and hopefully will serve CAC and growers in his area for many years to come. Also, Ed Mc Fadden III (my big brother) grower and farm manager from Fillmore was elected Chairman of the Commission for the next 2 years. Ed has served on CAC board for over 10 years representing all Ventura County avocado growers. He is also President of the Elkins Ranch Country Club where I am seated next to him as his co-chair. Both Gabe and Ed are very hard workers, born and raised in agriculture and are not scared to get their hands dirty. Congratulations to both of you and good luck.

As a whole, San Luis Obispo County looks to be set relatively light for the 2012 crop year. Late frost and cool spring time temps in 2011 contributed to a poor fruit set in many regions of the county. In other areas, growers are finally seeing more fruit drop through the canopies and are becoming a bit more hopeful.

Northern Santa Barbara County once again looks to have above average yields. While fruit sizing got off to a great start it seemed to stall out a bit in December. Record cold nights plagued the northern most growing regions for three straight weeks. Growers did everything that they could to try to protect their trees from running irrigation water and wind machines to hiring helicopters to fly around and circulate the air.

Overall the actual cold damage ended up being minimal and localized. Unfortunately, the cold was not the only crop limiter that growers had to endure. Extremely high winds in both November and December brought about considerable fruit loss to both San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties.

Many growers are trying to stay positive and hope that the lightening of the tree load will contribute to better overall fruit size. Others are looking at a very heavy off bloom and keeping their fingers crossed for some retention.

The key to 2012, as with most other years, will be to try to maximize your crop with good fruit size. As we start the season we see a considerable premium in the market for large fruit. Feel free to contact your Mission Field Rep anytime for cultural advice or to put together a preliminary harvest strategy for 2012.

It looks like most areas in Ventura County and Carpenteria have a great fruit set for the 2012 crop season. With a large crop and the lack of rain this winter, I have been noticing that the size of the fruit is smaller than usual. It is very important to keep the water going on the trees, especially during these warmer winter days. The other thing I've noticed is that a lot of growers have a high amount of Thrips damage. The Thrips damage is mostly due to growers spraying too late. The Thrips popped up overnight. I would say that the average Thrips damage for my area is in the 10% to 14% range.

The market came out of the shoots with some strong pricing. It looks like it's going to be a good year for growers. Chile has a lighter crop then they expected and is also having problems with too much small fruit. For the California grower size is going to be king. I would strongly encourage growers to not pick prematurely. Pick when your fruit is at its maximum growth. Of course pruning and early select picking will help the rest of your fruit to size up better.

Please keep in touch to get a good harvest strategy set up and feel free to call for any market updates.

Food safety is one of the most talked about topics in the produce industry. Two years ago Mission took a leading role in the GAP (Good Agriculture Practices) certification process. We have now gone through numerous audits which includes new growers joining the team as well as last year’s growers continuing the program. This effort far exceeds that of our competitors.

The Mission program is the best in the industry and we are proud to say our average score is 98% – equaling excellence – from NSF Davis Fresh, a third party, independent auditing company. The GAP program is becoming more and more recognized and talked about in the avocado industry. A lot of people think avocados are bullet proof due to the fruit never touching the ground and the fact that we do not eat the skin. That being said, we know avocados are a low risk food safety item but we are sometimes guilty by association. Most people put avocados in a salad or add tomatoes or green onions to their guacamole. These are all higher risk food safety items. It is important to show the industry that growers are making an effort to insure consumers that our fruit is safe. Here at Mission, our GAP program is comprehensive and thorough. And we are showing it by leading the march in food safety. If you would like to be a part of our GAP program please let your field representative know or feel free to contact me directly.